A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
